Singapore’s Non-Oil Domestic Exports (NODX) growth forecast for 2025 has been revised downward to -4.0% by UOB Global Economics and Markets Research.
This adjustment comes in response to a slowdown in March’s NODX growth to 5.4% year-on-year, down from 7.6% in February, despite favourable base effects. The electronics sector showed resilience with an 11.9% increase, driven by a significant surge in personal computer exports.
The revision reflects heightened trade policy uncertainty, which reached a historical high in March 2025. This uncertainty, as measured by the Trade Policy Uncertainty index, could lead to declines in investments and consumption. UOB noted that ongoing negotiations and potential reductions in tariffs might alleviate some tensions, but the impact of recent escalations has already been felt, with US consumer sentiment showing a slump.
Enterprise Singapore has acknowledged the evolving tariff situation, stating that it will adjust the 2025 NODX forecast as necessary. The current trade tensions echo the trade wars under the Trump administration, which saw NODX momentum plummet before recovering post the Phase One deal in January 2020.
UOB’s revised forecast anticipates intermittent back-to-back seasonally-adjusted sequential contractions, with risks skewed to the downside. The potential for further sector-specific tariffs, particularly in pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, adds to the uncertainty. The US has initiated investigations under the 1962 Trade Expansion Act, which could lead to additional tariffs on national security grounds.
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