Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) experienced a contraction of 3.3% month-on-month in January, according to a report by UOB Global Economics and Markets Research. This decline follows two months of strong growth, with a year-on-year (YoY) decrease of 2.1%, attributed to shifting holiday effects.
The electronics sector, a significant component of NODX, saw its growth rate slow to 9.6% YoY in January, down from 18.6% in December. This deceleration is linked to the fading of favourable base effects from August 2022 to December 2023. Key contributors to the electronics growth included integrated circuits, personal computers, and disk media products. However, non-electronics NODX fell by 4.8% YoY, with pharmaceuticals and specialised machinery leading the decline.
Despite the resilience in electronics, UOB’s report suggests that the YoY growth in this sector has likely peaked. The report notes, “The electronics cycle in both South Korea and Taiwan, which serves as a bellwether for the region, has convincingly peaked sometime in Q3 2024.”
The report also highlights potential risks from US trade policies under President Donald Trump’s “Fair and Reciprocal Plan,” which could impact global trade dynamics. Although Singapore faces lower direct tariff risks, its open economy remains vulnerable to global trade disruptions.
UOB maintains its 2025 NODX growth forecast at 1.5%, anticipating a slowdown in export momentum in the second half of the year due to tariff impacts. This forecast aligns with the official projection range of 1.0% to 3.0% by Enterprise Singapore.
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