Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) experienced a modest increase of 2.3% year-on-year in January and February. This growth, however, marks a slowdown from the previous quarter’s 2.4%, primarily due to a deceleration in electronics exports, which rose by 8.2% compared to 14.2% in the fourth quarter of 2024, according to a report by UOB Global Economics and Markets Research.
The report highlights that the electronics sector, a significant component of Singapore’s exports, saw a decline in integrated circuits and PCB assembly, although this was partially offset by improvements in personal computers and telecommunications equipment. Electronics non-oil re-exports also showed a slight increase to 17.1% year-on-year, indicating continued front-loading of exports amidst escalating trade tensions.
UOB’s analysis suggests that the peak in electronics NODX growth has likely passed, with a further moderation observed in February. The report attributes this to the broader regional electronics cycle, which has also peaked in key markets like South Korea and Taiwan.
The uncertainty surrounding trade policy has reached unprecedented levels, as measured by the Trade Policy Uncertainty index. This rise in trade tensions is expected to impact consumer and business confidence, particularly in the United States. UOB maintains its forecast for a 1.5% growth in NODX for 2025, factoring in a potential slowdown in export momentum in the second half of the year due to tariff impacts. This forecast aligns with the official projection range of 1.0% to 3.0% by Enterprise Singapore.
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