Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) growth in March was weaker than anticipated, according to a report by Nomura Global Economics.
The growth rate fell to 5.4% year-on-year, significantly below the consensus forecast of 13.6% and Nomura’s own prediction of 15.2%. This slowdown was primarily attributed to a sharp decline in non-monetary gold exports, which dropped to 78.1% from 106.8% year-on-year.
Despite the overall slowdown, excluding gold, NODX growth still rose to 2.7% year-on-year from 1.0%, driven by low base effects in electronics and pharmaceuticals exports. Electronics exports increased by 11.9%, whilst pharmaceuticals surged by 24.9%, aligning with Nomura’s expectations.
China remained a significant drag on NODX, with growth worsening to -29.4% from -27.4%. Exports to the US also saw a sharp decline, falling to 5.7% year-on-year from 21.5%, largely due to reduced gold exports. Meanwhile, exports to the EU moderated to 11.0% from 16.7%, despite an improvement in pharmaceutical exports.
Nomura maintains its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Singapore at 2.3%, but highlights rising downside risks due to escalating US-China trade tensions and weaker-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter. The Singapore government recently adjusted its official 2025 GDP growth forecast range to 0-2% from 1-3%.
Looking ahead, Nomura anticipates further moderation in NODX growth, although resilient domestic demand and fiscal support measures from Budget 2025 are expected to provide some offset.
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